Since the intervals are of different durations, these lines need to be centered below one another. It helps to have a frequency analysis of the actual shapes of the waves, and that can be done relatively easily by taking the values from one peak to the next and arranging them in a matrix, with the revenue for each peak-to-peak curve constituting a single row in the matrix. The big peaks occur roughly every 5 years on average, so the base frequency is about 157 micro Hertz, or ОјHz. These cycles can be observed in the chart below, which shows both DRAM and NAND flash revenues since 1991. The first thing to do is to determine the frequency of the industryвЂ™s cycles.

Its relation to regular cycles leads it to immediate use in predicting the cycles of the memory market, or semiconductors, or for any other cyclical market. This chart is a nomogram, presented in an angular/logarithmic format (as opposed to the semi-logarithmic format that I often use in this blog) which was originally devised to help antenna designers determine the effects of impedance and standing waves. My answer is always that I use the Smith Chart. Many of my clients ask The Memory Guy how it is that I am able to come up with such consistently-acurate forecasts in a seemingly-unpredictable market. Forecasting the memory market can be quite daunting unless you use the appropriate tools, then it becomes enormously simple.

Smith chart excel